The trough will be advancing east-northeast through Friday with a frontal system moving across Ireland, England into Germany, and the Baltic Sea. One main influence in the Outlook for February is the current La Nia ongoing across the Pacific Ocean. Drought forecast for the Lower 48 U.S. states in February 2022. The Met Office have issued yellow and amber warnings, meaning there is a likelihood of travel disruption with downed trees, possible power cuts and tiles blowing off rooves. The influence of La Nia is evident in the precipitation outlook as well. Issued by: Severe Weather Europe A rapidly developing North Atlantic cyclone is moving across the Bay of Biscay and will bring severe to extremely severe and destructive winds to southern Ireland and southwestern England on Friday. And head back to Climate.gov later this month for a United States and global climate recap of January 2022. Wetter conditions are expected in the next fortnight (7 20 February) over the region between the equator and 10N (including the Malay Peninsula, northern Sumatra, northern Borneo and southern Philippines) and also the southern Maritime Continent. While the northern side of this frontal system brings heavy rain and snow, the front-end and southern portions of the cyclone lead to a particularly dangerous and damaging windstorm. A particularly dangerous weather situation is forecast to take place Thursday night through Friday into Saturday morning across portions of western Europe, associated with a violent windstorm Eunice. Graupel or snow showers could follow in the systems wake. The highest gusts could exceed 120 km/h along the Baltic coast of Poland. ");b!=Array.prototype&&b!=Object.prototype&&(b[c]=a.value)},h="undefined"!=typeof window&&window===this?this:"undefined"!=typeof global&&null!=global?global:this,k=["String","prototype","repeat"],l=0;lb||1342177279>>=1)c+=c;return a};q!=p&&null!=q&&g(h,n,{configurable:!0,writable:!0,value:q});var t=this;function u(b,c){var a=b.split(". Darker colors meangreater chances, not how far above or below average precipitation is likely to be. MDT risk has been issued for northern Germany, extreme southern Denmark into extreme northwestern Poland, and western Baltic Sea with threat for severe damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The region has already been swept by damaging windstorm Dudley Wednesday night into Thursday morning and will be blasted by violent and potentially destructive winds once again.

There is still a possibility that the weather could take a turn for the worse again before the end of the month. Storm Eunice is forecast to form in the Atlantic on Thursday and once it does, we will have a better idea of its exact track.

":"&")+"url="+encodeURIComponent(b)),f.setRequestHeader("Content-Type","application/x-www-form-urlencoded"),f.send(a))}}}function B(){var b={},c;c=document.getElementsByTagName("IMG");if(!c.length)return{};var a=c[0];if(! The winds will grow in strength over the course of the day and the centre of the storm is forecast to pass over the north of Scotland overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Brown indicates areas where experts believe drought will persist or worsen. Darker colors reflect higher chances of a given outcome, not more extreme conditions. The Southern Annular Mode is currently positive but expecting to return to neutral mid- February.

For the last week in February, we continue on a windy note to start with. More detailed interpretations of the implications for regional climate variability will be carried out routinely by the climate forecasting community over the coming months and will be made available through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. kenya White does not mean "average." The odds for La Nia continue todrop to 40-50% during the April-June 2022 season, with ENSO-neutral becoming the most likely category (50-60% chance). Above 60% chance for the eastern part of the Central Wheatbelt and parts of the South West forecast districts. Severe weather outlook forecast across Europe. By Wednesday afternoon we will start to feel the effects of Storm Dudley. Overall, the 2020-22 drought continues to break records on a weekly basis, as the January 25 drought monitor marked a record 70 weeks where at least 40% of the contiguous U.S. was drought. dhillon gurinder allevents Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the southern and eastern United States. The main climate driver influencing Australia rainfall is the La Nia in the Pacific, although it has little influence over rainfall in the SWLD. January maximum temperatures were above average and below average along the south east coast. Anywhere. Its warmer than average.

"),d=t;a[0]in d||!d.execScript||d.execScript("var "+a[0]);for(var e;a.length&&(e=a.shift());)a.length||void 0===c?d[e]?d=d[e]:d=d[e]={}:d[e]=c};function v(b){var c=b.length;if(0 Although we dont feel it directly, it drives the storms below it, intensifying them and pushing them in our direction. Follow severe weather as it happens. Drought development is also expected across the Central Plains due to a combination of a lack of snowpack, frozen ground, and warmer/drier than average conditions. February looks set to end on a wet and windy note, with two named storms forecast to affect the UK this week. At the start of February, there was no Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. The highest chance for a wetter-than-normal end to meteorological winter is across the High Plains in Montana and North Dakota as well as across the Midwest. The highest gusts are likely to reach or even exceed 150 km/h across the northern portions of the Bay of Biscay, nosing into southern Ireland and southwestern England. Climate.gov map fromData Snapshots, based ondatafrom the U.S. Drought Monitor/Drought.gov. Predictive skill based on January conditions is mostly poor to good (50-70% consistent). These will both bring gales and rain and possibly even snow and blizzard conditions. Predictive skill is poor to good (50-75% consistent). Dangerous weather conditions will finally vanish through late Saturday as the storm Eunice finally occludes and wind threat diminishes. For information and web links to WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) please visit: https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/regional-climate-centres. Storm Eunice should cause significant disruption and dangerous wild weather conditions due to extremely severe winds on Friday. Green areas mean drought is likely to end. Heavy rain squalls will be associated along the moving front, spreading across Ireland, Wales, and England from early Friday into the late morning hours. At the surface, explosive cyclogenesis is underway across the northern portions of the Bay of Biscay. SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for February to April 2022 using data up to and including January, Percent consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting February to April rainfall using data up to and including January. Instead, they are the probability (percent chance) that February temperatures or precipitation will be in the upper, middle, or lower third of the climatological record (1991-2020) for February. We refer to these categories as well above and well below average. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from DPIRDs Seasonal Climate Information pages. White does not mean "average." A particularly dangerous severe wind event is expected across portions of western Europe from early Friday through Friday night, associated with a violent windstorm Eunice.

(function(){for(var g="function"==typeof Object.defineProperties?Object.defineProperty:function(b,c,a){if(a.get||a.set)throw new TypeError("ES3 does not support getters and setters. Threat across northern Germany and Poland will be maximized through early Saturday morning, roughly from 00-06 UTC on Feb 19th. The colors (red or blue for temperatures, brown or teal for precipitation) indicate which outcome is the most likely. Map of the contiguous United States (viewAlaska) showing which of three temperature outcomesmuch warmer than average (red), average, or much cooler than average (blue)are most likely for the month of February.

It will be milder in the south and in the north there will be a bit of hill snow. Out West, the drought area increased from 77% to 88% of the region. However, because La Nia isnt the only influence, the outlook doesnt 100% mimic what would be expected during an average La Nia. MDT/ENH risks have been issued for areas surrounding the HIGH-risk area including most of Ireland, England, northern France, most of Belgium, the Netherlands, southern North Sea, northern Germany into northern Poland, and the Baltic Sea with a lesser extent of severe to extremely severe winds and heavy rainfall. Climate.gov map fromData Snapshots, based on data from the Climate Prediction Center. The surface pressure is already significantly deepening, storm Eunice is rapidly developing, approaching southern Ireland and southwestern England Thursday night. For Tuesday and Wednesday this week we will see multiple weather fronts coming through, each bringing a band of rain and breezy conditions. Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development's Agriculture and Food division is committed to growing and protecting WA's agriculture and food sector. (Sorry, not sorry, Punxsutawney Phil).

Normally, thanks to La Nia, youd expect to see a below-average blob over the region. Issued: 4 February 2022 These storms are being driven our way by the jet stream this ribbon of high altitude winds is sat right over us about 4 miles up. In contrast, there is a tilt in the odds towards a colder-than-average February across the Pacific Northwest stretching eastward to the Northern Plains. As we move into the weekend we have more wet and windy weather, so it wont be much fun for those dealing with the aftermath of Storms Dudley and Eunice. [CDATA[ The Bureau, indicates 80% chance of exceeding above average night-time minima for the SWLD. For now, it looks like it will come further south than Dudley. Severe wind threat is forecast to arrive through the Friday afternoon and move east quickly overnight to Saturday along and behind the racing cold front. Climate model output along with the state of other climate phenomena, like the North Atlantic Oscillation, were also used to create the final forecast. Warmer conditions are also expected over the region around Sumatra in the next fortnight (7 20 February), in line with the drier conditions predicted. The February 2022 temperature outlook certainly bears more than a passing resemblance to what we would typically expect during a La Nia-influence winter. First forecast week: 7 February 13 February In general, La Nia influences conditions across the United States by altering the strength and location of the Pacific jet stream, which in turn affects the path of weather systems downstream across the U.S.. Map by Fiona Martin for NOAA Climate.gov. For the next month, drought improvement is unlikely across much of the West, with drought development likely across Arizona and southern New Mexico/western Texas. Science & information for a climate-smart nation. For web links of the National Meteorological Hydrological Services, please visit: https://public.wmo.int/en/about-us/members. To the north of the tracking center low, heavy snow with near blizzard conditions is possible, with about 10-20 cm of snow possible in places. A shortened version of the URL, helpful when communicating the URL over email or verbally. Cooler than usual conditions are expected for northern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (7 20 February).

Head to the end ofthis postfor more on the math behind the outlooks, including how experts calculate the probability of the less likely (but still possible!) Drought conditions across the contiguous United States as of January 25, 2022. As of January 25, over 55% of the country remained in some level of drought. Power cuts and outages affecting other services, such as mobile phone coverage could follow as well. It means a warm, cool, or near average February are all equally likely. ENH/SLGT risks have been placed surrounding the MDT risk area across Germany, Denmark, northern Czech Republic, Poland, Baltic Sea, Lithuania, and western Belarus with threat for severe winds but with lesser coverage than within the MDT risk area.